The stock split even proves my point further. Stock splits lessen the value of an individual stock. So if they had 10,000 at one point, one stock split puts their shares at 20,000, another stock split puts their shares at 40,000. That means that 40,000 shares at $259 share is a great increase in the original 10,000 shares at $10 a share. So thank you for proving my point.
Again, in actuality what leads markets to go up and down are investors willing to buy. If they don't buy and just sell...markets go down. If they just buy and don't sell...markets go up. It doesn't matter what the financials are. One investor buying up $40 billion dollars of a company stock will make the price sky rocket. Doesn't matter how it's theoreticized, it's just what happens. Why do you think financials lead the market? Because I know for a fact that if someone bought $2 billion dollars worth of Cisco stock, the share price would jump. And that person could base that price off of a hunch. Tell me this...without any financial evidence, why is that when I invested in Apple after the iPad dropped, why did the stock go up between then and the earnings report? No one could've known what the financials were because they weren't available, so why did the stock price go up? Because financials have nothing to do with the price. It's all about who's buying and selling. More people buy (bull market), the higher the share price. More people sell (bear market), the lower the share.
As for CSCO stock, you're looking at what it's earning now. Which is not a way of looking at buy-and-hold. 15 years from now, if the stock is still at $23 (which I guarantee it won't be), then you will be right. But it won't be, because of all the future initiatives and investments that they are making in the future. I would wage you $100,000 that in 15 years, Cisco's stock will be above what it is today.
You said, "It takes time and has many many up and down trends along the way and most stocks dont continue to go up."- this is the key to why buy and hold works. You look long term, past the so called trends. You're focused on small term gains. And you were right about Warren Buffet...but he wasn't always a billionaire

He bought and held, and look where he is now.
Investing in the dollar is investing in thin air, the dollar is no longer backed by gold. And therefore is valued at heresay. Hate to say it, but it's true. Metals are also not back by anything but what people put a value on...hence investing in metals is like investing in dollar. Logically, my argument is sound.
Also, I don't watch CNBC. I do know how the markets work, that's how I make money I live on. I trade in the markets...and I'm quite successful at it. I analyze my own holdings and I research my own strategies. And through buy and hold I've made a bunch through Amazon (which made me over $300 in four hours last fall btw) and Netflix. Actually my investment accounts pay for my rent and my food. I also, disagree with CNBC, they give "hot" tips, I prefer due diligence. Everything you think you know about me is wrong. 1) I don't listen to CNBC, except for news updates 2) I'm very successful (hence the people that want me to invest for them when I receive my licensing 3) I don't know how the markets work, my landlord and bank account say otherwise. Think what you want but I'm making my money in this wonderfull recession. I hope you are as well. The only difference is Netlflix, apple, and amazon are paying my bills through buy and hold.
I will give you one thing, you are a way better investor than I. But in the long run(40+ years), my strategy makes more money than yours.