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  #136  
Old 02-15-2017, 03:12 AM
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: February 15, 2017

The USD/JPY pair surged in value on Tuesday as the demand for high-risk assets further increased among investors. The USD also became more attractive for investors as a result of an increase in Treasury yields. The USD/JPY pair finished off the last trading session at 114.249 points after increasing by 0.44% or 0.506 points. This increase in Treasury yields was further supported by Yellen’s remarks, after the Fed chair stated that it would be impractical to hold off the impending interest rate hikes by the central bank, especially in the face of burgeoning economic growth and inflation rates.

Today’s session is expected to be mostly driven by investor sentiments, with high demand for risky assets becoming the likely catalyst. Yellen will also be releasing a statement in Congress today, and the Fed chair is expected to offer more clarifications with regards to the guidelines and further details with regards to the Fed rate hike, with investors putting a 22% probability of an interest rate hike this coming March. The US will also be releasing a number of economic data today, such as the retail sales report and consumer inflation data. Accompanying these major reports are the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization data, and Industrial Production data.

Yellen’s statement today is expected to inject additional volatility into the currency pair, and if her comments come out as hawkish, then this could cause the USD/JPY pair to further increase in value. If Yellen refuses to confirm market speculations of a rate hike in March, then this could be used by investors to book their own profits.
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  #137  
Old 02-16-2017, 08:52 PM
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February 16, 2017

BoE Proposed Revisions for Interbank Lending Benchmark Rate

The Bank of England re-evaluated its proposal to revise the lending rate benchmark for interbank exchange to prevent manipulation of reference point for financial contracts. Also, they intend to put on hold the changes between March and April next year, instead for this year.

In particular, they will change the procedure and apply the “trimmed mean” approach for calculating the Sterling Overnight Index Average (SONIA) which is used alternatively for some contracts with the global London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). An estimated total of $450 trillion contracts were affected by the market scandal which BoE takes responsibility.
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  #138  
Old 02-16-2017, 09:01 PM
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February 16, 2017

Kazakhstan Mulls Over $6.5 bln to Support Banks

Kazakhstan intends to provide 2.1 trillion-tenge ($6.5 billion) worth of government budget in strengthening the bank's condition covering the expenditures for the budget deficit and concerns about oil wealth fund. The Minister of Finance Bakhyt Sultanov presented this proposal to the Cabinet last Monday. Based on the report from Bloomberg, Timur Suleimenov the National Economy Minister mentioned that the administration intends to execute a major transfer for the national oil fund amounting to 1.5 trillion tenge ($4.6 billion) with a similar allocation to the deficit.

The biggest landlocked state considers backing the Kazkommertsbank which is the country’s largest asset lender. The private bank struggled due to severe debts upon the duplicated defaults within the BTA Bank in 2014. The same year when the crude prices stalled and further weighed to tenge, weakening the Kazakh economy. The central bank has amplified emergency loans approximately by 400 billion tenge last February 9 and half of the said amount were pinned to Kazkommertsbank.
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  #139  
Old 02-16-2017, 09:09 PM
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February 16, 2017

USD Rallies after Hawkish Statements from Fed

The US dollar was able to reverse its losses and reach its highest value for this month as Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s comments came out to be very hawkish. The Fed chair stated yesterday that the timing is right for the central bank to implement another rate hike in the coming months, and that it would be impractical to hold off this particular event any longer. This increased the probability of a rate hike this March, and lent support for the USD’s value which has been gaining momentum during the past week.
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  #140  
Old 02-17-2017, 01:29 AM
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 17, 2017

The USD/CAD pair merely continued its current trend of ranging and consolidation as the currency pair waits for a definite direction to appear in the market. A recurring dollar strength has caused the currency pair to experience slight bounces and subsequent drops led to recurring drops in the currency pair as well, but the currency pair still has no definite path as the bulls and bears both have no catalyst whatsoever which could propel them to take hold of the USD/CAD pair.

The US released a slew of positive economic data yesterday but this was still not enough to induce significant movement in the USD/CAD pair. The pair continues to fail to surpass 1.3100 points and simply reverted back to 1.0360 points. There seems to be no major movement for the pair anytime soon, especially since analysts have been constantly saying that the pair would only experience a major trend change if it manages to break through its support barrier of 1.3000 points. The bulls have been trying to increase the pair’s momentum but has failed miserably due to the dollar weakness, thereby causing the pair to merely range and consolidate.

There are no major news releases coming from both US and Canada today and since the US market will be on a holiday this coming Monday, the pair would most likely continue its current trend.
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  #141  
Old 02-17-2017, 02:30 AM
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 17, 2017

The sterling pound has consistently been taking advantage of the dollar weakness during these past two days and was able to revert all of its losses during the start of the week. The GBP/USD pair is currently within a very large range and might continue its activity of repeatedly correcting and reverting in the short term. As of the moment, the currency pair has reverted but it is highly possible that a major selloff might occur soon, which will then send the currency pair back into the lower rung of its trading range.

The USD was unable to increase its value in spite of a slew of positive economic data coming from the region, including the latest manufacturing index data. In Trump’s latest speech, he failed to discuss his administration’s fiscal and economic policies, but this has done nothing to support the dollar. Even the recent comments from the Fed also failed to revitalize the dollar slump, and this has boded well for the GBP/USD pair, which immediately capitalized on the dollar weakness and has propelled the pair into becoming the strongest currency pair amidst the USD slump.

UK will be releasing its retail sales data today, and this is also expected to come in at a strong note which will lend further support to the sterling pound, and will continue the string of positive economic data coming from the UK in spite of the ongoing Brexit process.
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  #142  
Old 02-17-2017, 02:41 AM
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 17, 2017

The US dollar further dropped in value during the previous trading session in spite of a series of highly positive economic data coming from the region. This latest update in the activity of the USD has helped the EUR to regain its footing and reverse all of last week’s losses. The currency is now trading just below its previously support but now resistance barrier of 1.0680 points. However, since the US dollar is still trading in a fairly weak manner, the EUR/USD could possibly increase further in value in the coming weeks.

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was released yesterday and had significantly exceeded market expectations after coming in at a whopping 43.3 reading when the expected reading was only at 18. This particular bit of data is the latest in the string of consecutively good readings from the region, but this has done nothing to increase the value somewhat of the USD. Aside from a series of highly positive reports coming from the region, the Federal Reserve has also hinted at the possibility of the central bank implementing up to 3 interest rate hikes this year, but again this has done nothing significant for the US dollar. One of the reasons behind this is that a lot of market players are still uncertain with regards to Trump’s very protectionist policies, and majority of them are concerned that Trump’s protectionism might have an adverse effect on their investments, which is why most of them are still very skeptical with regards to investing in the US dollar.

The EUR/USD pair is expected to undergo more ranging and consolidation with a bullish bias as there are no major economic data expected from both the US and the European Union today. The New York session might experience an increased level of volatility since most traders will be squaring off their respective positions as preparation
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  #143  
Old 02-17-2017, 02:53 AM
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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: February 17, 2017

The positive figures from the labor market in Australia were ignored by the Australian currency. The report for employment in January showed neutral, the jobless rate grew less whereas the total number of part-time laborers rose while the total of full-time employees declines. Yesterday, the AUD/USD preserved an upward trajectory in the short-term. The AUD rallied on Wednesday and renewed its multi-month highs near 0.7732.

Investors agreed to support the Aussie and rebounded in the Asian trades on Thursday. The pair weakened in the interim of profit taking action and advance to 0.7700 level and tested it during the early session of Europe. The spot hovered within the aforesaid level.

The 4-hour chart presented the price bounced off to 50-EMA with an upward direction staying on top of the moving averages.The 50, 100 and the 200-EMAs sustained a bullish sentiment as shown in the same timeframe. Resistance plunged in 0.7750, support lies at 0.7700.

The MACD histogram is on the upside. RSI settled around the overvalued territory.

Technicals posted a bullish bias. The AUDUSD is possible for gain resumption towards the mark 0.7750, heading 0.7800.
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  #144  
Old 02-17-2017, 02:58 AM
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 17, 2017

The British currency reversed minor part of its losses and returned to its session highs in spite of the unfavorable inflation coupled with the current trends in the labor market. The investors’ attention fixated on the release of retail sales data.

Sellers stalled upon meeting a hurdle at 1.2400 yesterday. The level declined the price and shortly spikes higher following the level testing. The sterling had a gradual growth amid Asian session and continued to track the upward trajectory during EU hours.

The cable tested the 1.2500 region on the onset of London trades, however, failed to break it. The 4-hour chart showed that the pair tested the 50-EMA, lead the 100-EMA upwards and rebounded in the 200-EMA. All moving averages established a bullish-neutral stance. Resistance is at 1.2500, support is found at 1.2400.

The MACD histogram is set at the centerline. If the indicator entered the positive zone, the buyers will procure further strength. While an entry towards the negative territory will imply sellers ability to gain the driver’s seat. RSI headed upwards after leaving the oversold area.

A sustained break on top of the 1.2500 mark is the recommended in order to resume the bullishness. In line with this, buyers have the tendency to take the price near 1.2600 but unable to do so may push the price back towards the downside.
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  #145  
Old 02-17-2017, 03:21 AM
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 17, 2017

The German jobless rate had slow growth for three years during the Q4 in 2016. While the level of unemployment in France came in negative. However, the single European currency was able to surge on Thursday on the back of broad retracement of US dollar towards profit-taking action.

The EURUSD lost some of its renewed bids within the 1.0500 region yesterday. The spot obtained an upward impetus and trade on the upside. The euro resumed its reversal on Thursday. Buyers take out 1.0600 barrier during the Asian trades and drove the spot towards a higher point. The major continued to develop amid early trades and moved close to 1.0650 mark in the post-EU opening. The aforesaid mark stalled the buyer’s growth.

According to the 4-hour chart, the price tested the 200-EMA throughout the late session of Europe. The 50-EMA manifest a downward crossover to 100-EMA and the two proceeded southwards. While the 200-EMA is positioned in the neutral area indicated in the same timeframe. Resistance is shown at 1.0650, support entered 1.0600.

The MACD increased confirming a weak stance of the sellers. RSI is in the neutral territory and went northbound.

A close on top of 1.0650 will likely produce a renewed bullish sentiment and could advance towards 1.0700 hurdle. Failure to regain 1.0650 may push the euro below the handle 1.0600.
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  #146  
Old 02-17-2017, 03:22 AM
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 17, 2017

The German jobless rate had slow growth for three years during the Q4 in 2016. While the level of unemployment in France came in negative. However, the single European currency was able to surge on Thursday on the back of broad retracement of US dollar towards profit-taking action.

The EURUSD lost some of its renewed bids within the 1.0500 region yesterday. The spot obtained an upward impetus and trade on the upside. The euro resumed its reversal on Thursday. Buyers take out 1.0600 barrier during the Asian trades and drove the spot towards a higher point. The major continued to develop amid early trades and moved close to 1.0650 mark in the post-EU opening. The aforesaid mark stalled the buyer’s growth.

According to the 4-hour chart, the price tested the 200-EMA throughout the late session of Europe. The 50-EMA manifest a downward crossover to 100-EMA and the two proceeded southwards. While the 200-EMA is positioned in the neutral area indicated in the same timeframe. Resistance is shown at 1.0650, support entered 1.0600.

The MACD increased confirming a weak stance of the sellers. RSI is in the neutral territory and went northbound.

A close on top of 1.0650 will likely produce a renewed bullish sentiment and could advance towards 1.0700 hurdle. Failure to regain 1.0650 may push the euro below the handle 1.0600.
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  #147  
Old 02-17-2017, 03:29 AM
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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: February 17, 2017

The Euro traded against the British pound on Thursday trading session but the market was able to find a significant support lower than the 0.85 level. The 50-day Exponential Average seems to swing close to the 0.8560 mark. If there is an exhaustive candle formed, this would give a selling opportunity for traders. However, if the market is able to close on an average daily close, there is an opportunity to trade for a short-term.
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  #148  
Old 02-20-2017, 12:46 AM
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 20, 2017

The sterling pound continued its current ranging and consolidating trend within a tight range for the second straight week as the currency pair was virtually unaffected by the dollar’s activity. Both the US and the UK are undergoing a period of large-scale market uncertainty, with the various concerns surrounding the Trump administration and the onslaught of the Brexit process causing the currency pair to be in a deadlock and trade within a pip range of 400-500 during the past few weeks.

UK’s average earnings data and CPI data turned out to be somewhat dismal, but the effect of this data was offset by the release of the claimant count change data which had a very positive reading. This somewhat balanced feel of the UK data is one of the reasons why the sterling pound has maintained its current position in spite of the Brexit process with no signs of falling off soon. Fed Chair Yellen chose the middle ground of the US monetary policy during her statement last week but also said that there is a likely possibility that the central bank will be implementing a rate hike this coming March. The effect of this particular bit of news might have done the USD some good, but then again the US market had to suffer the effects of a very weak wages data in spite of a positive CPI and retail sales data, and this had a significant impact on the movement of the USD’s bulls. Luckily the GBP/USD pair was not that adversely affected and closed down last week’s session at just over 1.2400 points.

For this week, the UK will be releasing its GDP data and the Parliament will be starting to discuss Article 50 which signals the start of the actual Brexit process. This is not expected to deliver new data into the market, but this is expected to add more volatility as it gets passed through the Parliament.
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  #149  
Old 02-20-2017, 12:53 AM
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 20, 2017

The USD/CAD continued its tight-range trading as pair continues to fail to make any significant headway as both the bulls and the bears of the pair struggle to take control of the currency pair. During the past weeks, the bulls looked like they had total control of the pair as the pair’s price hovered over 1.3200 points, with very few corrections. However, this slowly changed as the weeks progressed and the pair now has to deal with immense pressure at its support barrier of 1.3000 points.

One of the reasons for this move in the USD/CAD pair is that the Canadian economy continues to release consistently positive strings of economic data, while the US continues to disappoint the market by releasing poor economic readings all throughout. The CPI data and retail sales data from the US was released last week, and although these two sets of data came out as fairly positive, it exhibited a very weak wages data and this did not sit well with the pair’s bulls. This, along with the fact that the market is still very uncertain with the current US administration and the unwillingness of investors to invest in the USD has led to a pronounced weakness in the US dollar.

For this week, the Canadian economy will be releasing its own set of CPI data and retail sales data, while the US will be releasing the minutes of the FOMC meeting, all of which are expected to induce significant volatility into the activity of the currency pair. If the data coming from the Canadian economy continues to be positive, then the pair bulls would be in trouble and the support barrier of 1.3000 points might very well snap. If this happens, then the USD/CAD pair’s trend could be in for some major trend changes.
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  #150  
Old 02-20-2017, 12:55 AM
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 20, 2017

The EUR/USD pair was subject to some nice amounts of volatility during the past week after the currency pair was mainly influenced by the dollar strength during the first half of the week, but immediately went into reversal as the latter part of the week started. The currency pair is now expected to consolidate with a bullish undertone for this week, with projected support levels at 1.0500 points and resistance levels expected to be at 1.0800 points.

Last week, the EUR/USD finally looked like it turned for the better as the currency pair made a steady march towards 1.0500 after breaking through 1.0600 after a foreshadowing of a long-awaited dollar uptrend. This was also further supported by Yellen’s confirmation that the Fed will be implementing another rate hike this coming March. However, the effect of this positive news was offset by the release of the CPI data which showed weak wages data in spite of the overall data being highly positive. This turned out to be unappealing for the dollar bulls and caused the USD’s strength to die down, causing the pair to end at just over 1.0600 points.

For this week, there will be a US market holiday and there are no expected data to come out from both the EU and the US for the week. The EUR/USD pair will most likely continue its current trend of ranging and consolidating for this week.
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