I have to disagree that markets are not predictable. They are not 100% predictable but yes they come close to that. The markets tell you what will happen but the majority doesn't speak the language of the markets.

Sure, there are events that occur which not a single person can predict but that is all ultra-short term and not somehting that is cause for concern.

Listen to the markets...they tell you what will happen...and don't fight or argue what they say because you will end up loosing.

That is just my own personal opinion.

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It is not smart to play it safe but it is safe to play it smart.

If this were true, markets wouldn't function. Let's stick with fact. You cannot predict with *any* level of certainty what *any* market will look like in *any* time period. The best you can do is put yourself in the best position to take advantage of market growth over the long-term. However, there are still no guarantees, and timing of market downturns can be deadly to your portfolio. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Period.

Not cause for concern? A downturn in a market within the 5 years prior to retirement could be devastating. And traditional thinking that relies on being mostly in bonds at this time never considered people living into their late 80's, early 90's and beyond. You focus on the long-term, with a careful eye on the short-term.

This is exactly why markets are NOT predictable. Where is the US stock market going to be in 10 years? 20 years? Who is going to be the dominant market even? How many rules, regulations, laws, bills, etc. are going to change, worldwide over that time period?

20 years ago you could not have predicted the explosion of the internet, and therefore, subsequent changes in financial markets. Today's markets are different than at any time in history. And as such, you cannot rely on past performance or predictable trending to forecast future results.

Volatility in all markets will increase as more and more individual investors participate in these markets. Access to information and news is at an all-time high, and these feeds will undermine sound investment principles, as they already have.

Well, that is your opinion and I disagree with you (just as you disagree with my opinion). Markets will always function simply due to the disagreement between market participants.

I agree with you that past performance is no guarantee for future results so why do you always bring up historic performances and want 10 or 20 year histories of 'anything'?

You yourself said that markets have changed so my question to you is why has your thinking not changed? Why do you still attempt to 'play' the markets with ideas that are from the past?

The market condition does not matter (unless you are on the wrong side of it) but besides that it is irrelevant. What will happen in 20 years is irrelevant as well. It will be important in 20 years but right now it does not matter.

Let's agree that we will never agree on this subject and not turn this into a very long discussion. You have your own opinion about it and I respect that and disagree with it (and you may do the same).

What are sound investment principles?

They may undermine your own investment principles but that does not mean that it undermines the investment principles of everyone and that is why markets will always work.

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It is not smart to play it safe but it is safe to play it smart.